EDI is still alive, but is changing, for example: although VANs carried about 95 percent of all EDI volume in 1997, this figure is predicted to drop to less than 50 percent by 2002 as more traffic is carried over the Internet. The value of EDI transactions in the U.S. was about $2.7 billion in 1997, and is projected to grow to $3.8 billion by 2002. Previous industry estimates, including the federal government, had placed the U.S. EDI figure as low as $250 million.
Clearly, EDI is still alive, and clearly, the XML groundswell is about to create a tidal wave in the e-business arena, therefore DoD must be positioned and ready in order to survive. With all the hype surrounding XML, it is difficult to separate fact from fiction. XML technologies have progress beyond the embryonic phase into the early adoption phase, however e-business framework specifications are still in development. The following timeline depicts our predictions for the rise of XML and the decline of EDI:
Figure 6.0-1 XML/EDI Timeline
With frameworks like BizTalk, xCBL, and ebXML both striving to provide a smooth migration path from traditional EDI to XML-enabled e-business, we are hopeful that the cost and complexity of this migration to XML (when the time comes) will be reduced to utilizing standard business process models and registry/repositories, some semantic mapping, and adopting new communication transports. Although this migration might sound daunting to some, we are hopeful that these new and emerging tools and technologies will be mature enough in the near to mid-term to simplify the migration process, however DoD needs to get more involved in the development and maintenance of the new framework specifications.
DoD is similar to other industries total national defense spending in 1999 was approximately $364.5 billion, while DoD's budget for the same year was approximately $252.6 billion. Considering that industries such as transportation, clothing and shoes, and motor vehicle and parts are $255.0, $306.3, and $316.1 billion dollar industries respectively, DoD is similar in "dollar size" to these industries. Although DoD is labeled as a single large and complex enterprise, they are however comprised of many sub-enterprises. DoD should behave as industry with respect to development and maintenance of new industry standard framework specifications for XML e-business. DoD IT standardization efforts need to move away from cumbersome DoD peculiar frameworks, in lieu of these industry standard framework specifications. DoD needs to have clearly organized and coordinated approach developing this "Standards Team" to ensure this team will have the capacity and agility to contribute intellectually to the standardization efforts.
As DoD ponders how to embrace and extend the XML family of specifications and enabling technologies, it is important to look within the DoD enterprise and ask the following questions:
1. Do we, DoD, care about XML governance, or are we content to let the standards you work with be defined by big corporations?
2. Do we, the DoD, consider ourselves a special case that necessitates unique standards and specifications above & beyond what industry uses?
3. Have we, the DoD, taken stock of our current and future system needs and requirements with respect to XML and XML/EDI?
While joint Federal and DoD efforts like the newly formed Federal Working Group are certainly positive signs that the government is making progress in focusing resources to improve planning and awareness of XML applications and related efforts, more meetings and support is needed to keep pace with the rapid advancement of this Internet information technology. In addition, DoD needs to also consider the following additional considerations in planning to embrace this emerging area:
1. Change management - dealing with people that are reluctant to change to protect their turf,
2. Standards management - developing a committee/organization for awareness, adoption, embracing, extending standards, and
3. Prioritize the current systems targeted for migration - develop a migration plan of actions and milestones that can keep in harmony with the rapid advancement of the commercially used Internet and Web information technologies.
